![]() ![]() However, in some countries and areas the impact of migration on population size is significant, namely in countries that send or receive large numbers of economic migrants and those affected by refugee flows. International migration is a much smaller component of population change than births or deaths. In 2021, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. While considerable progress has been made in closing the longevity differential between countries, large gaps remain. Globally, life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. Overall, significant gains in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. According to the World Population Prospects (2022 Revision), global fertility is projected to fall from 2.3 children per woman in 2021 to 2.1 in 2050. Factors influencing the population growth Fertility ratesįuture population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades. In sharp contrast, the populations of 61 countries or areas in the world are expected to decrease by 2050, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least ten per cent. Several countries are expected to see their populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding future trends in fertility in Africa, the large number of young people currently on the continent, who will reach adulthood in the coming years and have children of their own, ensures that the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of the world’s population over the coming decades. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double by 2050. A rapid population increase in Africa is anticipated even if there is a substantial reduction of fertility levels in the near future. Africa has the highest rate of population growth among major areas. More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Survival prospects are also projected to improve in all countries. These figures are based on the medium projection variant, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent, as well as a slight increase of fertility in several countries with fewer than two children per woman on average. As with any type of projection, there is a degree of uncertainty surrounding these latest population projections. The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years-until 2037- for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. ![]() On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. These trends will have far-reaching implications for generations to come. Major changes in fertility rate have accompanied this growth. This dramatic growth has been driven largely by increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age, the gradual increase in human lifespan, increasing urbanization, and accelerating migration. The world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. ![]() The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998. The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century.
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